Using Historical Data To Handicap The City of San Bernardino Fifth Ward City Council Election in November 2011 Between Chas Kelley and Larry Lee

    on September 21, 2011

    The conclusion was, based on the last election:

    Council Member Chas Kelley won easily in a four person field.    I would expect a similar turnout in this election.  The relationship between Council member and Mayor Morris has stayed relatively the same since the last election, so I would guess the Mayor’s supporters will vote for Pastor Lee, and Chas Kelley, as long he has not been ignoring his constituents in the last four years, should be reelected.   The demographics of the 5th Ward have changed with the collapse of the housing markets, but I doubt that will have an impact on Council member Kelley since Pastor Lee’s platform is not markedly different from what I expect Chas Kelley’s platform to be once he sends out campaign fliers or has a website or a Facebook account.

    Here are the results from the November 8, 2011 election:

    Member, City Council SAN BERNARDINO Ward 5
    18/18 100.00%
    Vote Count Percent
    CHAS A. KELLEY 1,658 64.69%
    LARRY A. LEE 905 35.31%
    Total 2,563 100.00%

    And here are the 2007 results:

    Vote For 1

    17 of 17 Precincts Reporting




    CHAS A. KELLEY 1638 59.80%
    CAROLYN A. TILLMAN 596 21.76%
    RICK AVILA 417 15.22%
    RANDY LEE 85 3.10%
    Write-In 3 0.11%

    Not including write-ins, which are not included in the 2011 results, the turnout was essentially the same; with 173 more votes in 2007 versus 2011.  Even with less voters, Chas Kelley picked-up 20 votes, and a little more than 5 percent of the votes.  Chas Kelley also improved on his 1519 votes in 2003, but not his margin of victory in 2003.  In 2003, he had 64.72 percent of the vote, compared to the mere 64.69 percent of the vote in 2011.

    In short, Chas Kelley remains popular in the 5th Ward, winning by almost two to one over Pastor Larry Lee.  Though Larry Lee did not explicitly run on a Mayor Morris ticket, the Mayor’s airport troubles probably did not help Larry Lee.  Larry Lee was probably also hurt by running a campaign that did not attack the incumbent, and did not really have a message.  At one point in the San Bernardino Sun, Larry Lee said, and I can’t find the exact quote, that he hadn’t read the City budget.


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