Monthly Archives: April 2012

    From the City of San Bernardino Website:

    NOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING IS HEREBY GIVEN that the Mayor and Common Council of the City of San Bernardino will conduct public hearings on Monday, May 7, 2012 and Monday, June 4, 2012 at 4:00 p.m., in the Council Chambers of City Hall, 300 North “D” Street, San Bernardino, California. The purpose of the hearings is to review and discuss the potential reapportionment of the City’s wards based on the 2010 U.S. Census.

     

    The Report and the proposed changes are at the City of San Bernardino’s website here.

     

    A recent picture of the California 31st Congressional District Open Primary signs:

    Dueling Bob Dutton and Gary Miller Signs in Redlands

    This is located at approximately 710 East Redlands Boulevard, roughly in front of the Albertsons in Redlands.  As we can see, the sign says “Re-Elect Gary Miller Congressman,” even though Jerry Lewis represents this area in Congress. Above the neon Gary Miller sign is a Bob Dutton for U.S. Congress sign.  Both are Republicans; Gary Miller says he is moving to Rancho Cucamonga if he is elected; Bob Dutton is a California State Senator, and he was a Rancho Cucamonga council member.

    The primary election for the new California 31st Congressional District (not to be confused with the current 31st Congressional District, which is in Los Angeles County)  is on June 5, 2012.  This is an open primary, meaning that two top preferences will move to the general election in November 2012.

    According to the San Bernardino Registrar of Voters, the open primary works like this:

    The Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act requires that all candidates for a voter-nominated office be listed on the same ballot. Previously known as partisan offices, voter-nominated offices are state legislative offices, U.S. congressional offices, and state constitutional offices.
    In this new open primary system, this means you can vote for any candidate, regardless of what party preference you indicated on your voter registration form. Only the two candidates receiving the most votes—regardless of party preference—move on to the general election regardless of vote totals. If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (50 percent +1), a general election still must be held. Even if there are only two candidates in the open primary, a general election is still required.
    Write-in candidates for voter-nominated offices can still run in the primary election. However, a write-in candidate can only move on to the general election if the candidate is one of the top two vote-getters in the primary election. Additionally, there is no independent nomination process for a general election.

    This system was created by the voters of the State of California in passing Proposition 14 on June 8, 2010.  The idea is that it will attract moderate candidates, because the candidates will no longer have to appeal to partisan voters in the primary.  At least in theory, we will find out what happens in the general election.
    Right now in the 31st Congressional District of California race, the following candidates are running in alphabetical order:
    Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, whose ballot designation is Business Owner/Councilmember, a Democrat.  I worked with Mayor Aguilar when I was Assistant City Attorney for Redlands. He was born in Fontana, lived in San Bernardino, went to Yucaipa High School and the University of Redlands, and now lives in Redlands, of course.

    Dr. Rita Ramierz-Dean, who is listed as “Retired Educator” on the ballot, a Democrat.

    California Senator Bob Dutton, who lists himself as an “Independent Small Businessmen,” a Republican, which I guess to the low-information voter sounds better than, say, California Senator.

    Justin Kim, who is listed as “Congressional Oversight Counsel,” a Democrat.  He lives in Loma Linda.

    Gary Miller, who is listed on the ballot as “Member of Congress,” no doubt for low-information voters, a Republican from Brea or Diamond Bar, depending on the account.  When you search “Gary Miller” Congress

    Renea Wickman, who is listed on the ballot as a Nonprofit Executive Director, lives in Redlands, and is a Democrat.

    The most recent data from the San Bernardino Registrar of Voters says that the new California 31st Congressional District has the following character: there are 291,087 voters. 38 percent, or 113,054 are permanent vote by mail voters.  It is a plurality Democratic district, with 118,960 registered Democrats (40.8 percent), 103,472 (35.5 percent) Republican voters, and 56,068 (19.3 percent) Decline To State (nonpartisan) voters.  The most voters after the big three (Democrats, Republicans and Decline To State) are American Independent at 9,065, 1,393 Libertarians, 1,064 Greens, 1,048 Peace and Freedomers, and 17 Americans Elect partisans.  That data is based on a 4/22/2012 run date.

    A variety of factors are in play here.  There should be light turn out for the Presidential primary as it is either over, or will be, for both parties by June 5, 2012.  Gary Miller is running as an incumbent, even though he isn’t from here, and doesn’t live here.  Bob Dutton must have some name recognition as a sitting elected official for this area, but as you can see both by the picture above and his website front page, he is neither running as a Republican, nor as a California Senator.  For the Democrats, Pete Aguilar has name recognition in Redlands, where he is the current Mayor.  As far as West End versus East Valley, it appears the district is about evenly divided between the two.  There are four Democrats running, and Pete Aguilar has raised the most money in the last reports.  I have seen some grass roots support for Justin Kim driving around Redlands (yard signs), but that anecdotal information is not of much value.  Justin Kim raised about half of what Pete Aguilar raised.  I see signs from someone running in the 8th District, and that doesn’t mean anything either.

    I won’t try to handicap the race, because there are too many variables.