Published January 23, 2012 | 
Last week, either on either Friday or Saturday, I received another mailer from Amelia Sanchez Lopez. The mailer is four pages, in color, and about half of an 8 1/2 by 11 brochure. The front is labeled “MAIL-IN BALLOT ELECTION GUIDE”
On the left it shows a mock up of the ballot and on the right are four steps corresponding with the ballot:
- Use a BLACK BALLPOINT PEN to cast your vote.
- VOTE FOR AMELIA SANCHEZ LOPEZ by connecting the two parts of the arrow next to Amelia’s name on your ballot.
- SIGN YOUR ENVELOPE – include your signature, voting address and the date. Ballots in unsigned envelopes will NOT be counted.
- MAIL IN YOUR BALLOT TODAY – NO postage is necessary. Ballots must be received by the Registrar of Voters no later than February 7. Mail no later than Friday, February 3, 2012 so your ballot arrives on time.
- QUESTIONS? – Please call the Registrar of Voters at 909-387-8300
The second page is titled “Amelia For City Clerk
PROVEN EXPERIENCE
- ONLY candidate for City Clerk with extensive financial and executive management experience.
- Executive Director of a local non-profit organization; 20 years administrative experience.
- Responsible for coordinating the County Alcohol and Drug Abuse Prevention Program. Helped pass a tough city ordinance against adults who buy alcohol for minors.
- Completed City Clerk Training course with the City Clerks Association of California.
HOMETOWN VALUES
- Five generations of Amelia’s family have lived and worked in San Bernardino. Member of Our Lady of Guadalupe Church.
- Graduate of the San Bernardino Citizens Academy. Worked with City Law Enforcement to shut down the notorious Hudson “Rave Club”.
- Neighborhood Leader and City Planning Commissioner.
- Community Volunteer who helped to protect our right to vote by defeating Measure C in 2010.
Also on the second page is a picture of Council member Robert Jenkins appointing Amelia Sanchez Lopez to the San Bernardino City Planning Commission. Amelia Sanchez Lopez’s contact information is given as www.amelialopezforcityclerk.com, friendsofamelialopez@yahoo.com, and 909-882-7085.
The last page is titled “Trusted and Respected” and features a picture of Amelia Sanchez Lopez with Former San Bernardino Mayor Judith Valles, former Mayor Evlyn Wilcox, Council member Robert Jenkins, Council member Wendy McCammack, San Bernardino School Board Member Judi Penman and Council member Elect John Valdivia. There are also quotes from Chas Kelley, firefighter Nathan Lopez, and former San Bernardino Chamber of Commerce President Jack Hill.
The back page has a picture of Ameila Sanchez Lopez with the legend “Integrity We Trust” and “Vote Amelia Sanchez Lopez for City Clerk” and “Special Vote-By-Mail Election.
I have not heard anything new from Gigi Hanna; her last Facebook post is dated January 11, 2012, the last mail piece was the calendar I wrote about earlier, which arrived more than a week ago. I checked Gigi Hanna’s website, and there do not appear to be any changes. Even the supporters list was the same, with a date of January 11, 2012 on the PDF metadata. I continue to pass large Gigi Hanna billboards and large wooden signs in my travels through the City.
Published December 12, 2011 | I wrote a post on October 18, 2011 about the primacy effect, primarily the legal basis for randomized election ordering in California:
The order of candidates on ballots is determined by a random drawing done by the California Secretary of State’s Office. The drawing for the November elections statewide was done on August 18, 2011. The drawing determines who goes first, by surname, which continues if people have similar surnames, like Reiter and Reid.
Why does it matter? It takes any politics out of the order of candidates. Why does that matter? Because of a phenomenon called the primacy effect or ballot order effect. The Secretary of State’s website claims: this “procedure was established by legislation passed in 1975 in response to court rulings declaring that standard alphabetical order or incumbent-first was unconstitutional since there is a 5% positional bias among undecided voters.” The ruling that the Secretary of State’s website is referring to is Gould v. Grubb (1975) 14 Cal.3d 661. The court found that “incumbent-first” and alphabetical order violated the 14th Amendment to the United States Constitution’s equal protection clause.
The ballot order of the San Bernardino City Unified School District candidates was:
Anna M. Cox
Willard A. Hughes
Margaret B. Hill
Mike Gallo
Lynda K. Savage
Damon L. Alexander
Elsa Valdez
Juan M. Lopez
Henry William Nickel
Gil Navarro
Dan Deane
Teresa Parra
Sharon “Bobbie” Perong
The final results were:
| San Bernardino City Unif School Dist Gov Brd Mbr |
| 200/200 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| ANNA M. COX | 1,825 | 4.05% |
| WILLARD A. HUGHES | 533 | 1.18% |
| MARGARET B. HILL | 6,671 | 14.79% |
| MIKE GALLO | 4,647 | 10.31% |
| LYNDA K. SAVAGE | 5,482 | 12.16% |
| DAMON L. ALEXANDER | 3,243 | 7.19% |
| ELSA VALDEZ | 3,079 | 6.83% |
| JUAN M. LOPEZ | 3,581 | 7.94% |
| HENRY WILLIAM NICKEL | 1,594 | 3.53% |
| GIL NAVARRO | 2,400 | 5.32% |
| DAN DEANE | 3,068 | 6.80% |
| TERESA PARRA | 4,218 | 9.35% |
| SHARON ”BOBBIE” PERONG | 4,751 | 10.54% |
| Total | 45,092 | 100.00% |
Anna Cox and Willard A. Hughes ran similar campaigns, with no advertising, and little campaigning. Yet, because she was listed first on the ballot, Anna Cox received 1,825 votes to Willard A. Hughes’ 533 votes. That suggests that since she was first on the ballot, that gave her an edge in votes over Willard Hughes among undecided voters.
Published November 22, 2011 | The winners don’t change, but the interesting thing is that write-ins are not tallied, unlike in previous elections.
| San Bernardino City Unif School Dist Gov Brd Mbr |
| 200/200 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| ANNA M. COX | 1,825 | 4.05% |
| WILLARD A. HUGHES | 533 | 1.18% |
| MARGARET B. HILL | 6,671 | 14.79% |
| MIKE GALLO | 4,647 | 10.31% |
| LYNDA K. SAVAGE | 5,482 | 12.16% |
| DAMON L. ALEXANDER | 3,243 | 7.19% |
| ELSA VALDEZ | 3,079 | 6.83% |
| JUAN M. LOPEZ | 3,581 | 7.94% |
| HENRY WILLIAM NICKEL | 1,594 | 3.53% |
| GIL NAVARRO | 2,400 | 5.32% |
| DAN DEANE | 3,068 | 6.80% |
| TERESA PARRA | 4,218 | 9.35% |
| SHARON ”BOBBIE” PERONG | 4,751 | 10.54% |
| Total | 45,092 | 100.00% |
| City Attorney SAN BERNARDINO |
| 148/148 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| DAVID L. MCKENNA | 6,019 | 48.28% |
| JAMES F. ”JIM” PENMAN | 6,447 | 51.72% |
| Total | 12,466 | 100.00% |
| City Clerk SAN BERNARDINO |
| 148/148 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| PEGGI HAZLETT | 2,440 | 20.15% |
| GEORGEANN ”GIGI” HANNA | 2,930 | 24.20% |
| AMELIA SANCHEZ-LOPEZ | 3,465 | 28.62% |
| WILLIAM A. VALLE | 1,077 | 8.89% |
| ESTHER JIMENEZ | 2,196 | 18.14% |
| Total | 12,108 | 100.00% |
| City Treasurer SAN BERNARDINO |
| 148/148 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| DAVID C. KENNEDY | 10,245 | 100.00% |
| Total | 10,245 | 100.00% |
| Member, City Council SAN BERNARDINO Ward 3 |
| 24/24 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| TOBIN BRINKER | 367 | 30.76% |
| JOHN VALDIVIA | 826 | 69.24% |
| Total | 1,193 | 100.00% |
| Member, City Council SAN BERNARDINO Ward 5 |
| 18/18 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| CHAS A. KELLEY | 1,658 | 64.69% |
| LARRY A. LEE | 905 | 35.31% |
| Total | 2,563 | 100.00% |
| Member, City Council SAN BERNARDINO Ward 6 |
| 14/14 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| RIKKE VAN JOHNSON | 1,075 | 100.00% |
| Total | 1,075 | 100.00% |
| Member, City Council SAN BERNARDINO Ward 7 |
| 20/20 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| WENDY J. MCCAMMACK | 1,361 | 57.26% |
| JIM MULVIHILL | 1,016 | 42.74% |
| Total | 2,377 | 100.00% |
Published November 15, 2011 | Nothing new to report regarding the numbers. As of 11:27 a.m. on November 15, 2011, the Registrar has not updated any of the totals. I’ll post more of this non-breaking news as it becomes available.
Published November 10, 2011 | By Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.
How did the local press do with their endorsed candidates?
The Sun endorsed:
San Bernardino City Council:
- 3rd Ward: Tobin Brinker
- 5th Ward: Chas Kelley
- 7th Ward: Jim Mulvihill
- San Bernardino City Attorney
- David McKenna
- San Bernardino City Clerk
- Gigi Hanna
Of the City of San Bernardino races the Sun’s editorial board endorsed, the Sun went 1-3-1. The tie was Gigi Hanna, who made the run-off for San Bernardino City Clerk.
How about our friendly neighbors to the south from the Riverside Press-Enterprise?:
David McKenna, Tobin Brinker, Chas Kelley and Jim Mulvihill.
How did they do? 1-3.
Either an anonymous wag, a hyperpartisan blogger or a paid political consultant said that a Sun or Press-Enterprise Endorsement was a kiss of death, but I would characterize the endorsements as largely irrelevant. I think the one place that the endorsement may have helped a candidate is Gigi Hanna, because though she has lived in San Bernardino for some time, she was not as well known as some of the other choices.
What about the other periodicals? The Black Voice News: Lynda Savage, Mike Gallo, Juan Lopez and Margaret Hill for San Bernardino City Unified School District Board. Not bad, they were 3 for 4. How about the City of San Bernardino? A bloodbath. They endorsed Tobin Brinker, Larry Lee, Rikke Van Johnson, Jim Mulvihill, Esther Jiminez and David McKenna. Of course, Rikke Van Johnson won because he was unopposed. Otherwise, The Black Voice News’ picks all lost.
The information you obtain at this blog is not, nor is it intended to be, legal advice. No attorney-client relationship is established by reading or commenting on this blog. You should consult an attorney for advice regarding your individual situation.
Published November 9, 2011 | By Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.
What a night. First, congratulations to the San Bernardino County Registrar of Voters, who did a much better job than in past elections.
Congratulations to the winners, they did something, or a variety of things, right. We’ll examine the lessons of this election later as the final votes are counted. Right now, the numbers will change, but the winners will not. These are the semi-official results, with provisional ballots and ballots requiring review (such as write-ins or over-votes).
Winners are in bold:
San Bernardino Council Third Ward
The surprise is not the result, but the margin:
| Member, City Council SAN BERNARDINO Ward 3 |
| 24/24 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| TOBIN BRINKER | 340 | 30.33% |
| JOHN VALDIVIA | 781 | 69.67% |
| Total | 1,121 | 100.00% |
Then there are the no-surprises:
| Member, City Council SAN BERNARDINO Ward 6 |
| 14/14 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| RIKKE VAN JOHNSON | 984 | 100.00% |
| Total | 984 | 100.00% |
| City Treasurer SAN BERNARDINO |
| 148/148 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| DAVID C. KENNEDY | 9,704 | 100.00% |
| Total | 9,704 | 100.00% |
Using the total ballots cast (so far) for the City Attorney race, that shows 2,103 voters who voted for City Attorney but did not vote for David Kennedy. I do not think that include ballots with write-ins, though it might. We will see in the final results.
Next we have the races where the result was not a surprise, but without third-party polling, probably impossible to tell the margin ahead of time:
| City Attorney SAN BERNARDINO |
| 148/148 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| DAVID L. MCKENNA | 5,677 | 48.08% |
| JAMES F. ”JIM” PENMAN | 6,130 | 51.92% |
| Total | 11,807 | 100.00% |
A 453 vote lead for City Attorney James F. Penman.
| Member, City Council SAN BERNARDINO Ward 5 |
| 18/18 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| CHAS A. KELLEY | 1,602 | 65.17% |
| LARRY A. LEE | 856 | 34.83% |
| Total | 2,458 | 100.00% |
Council member Chas Kelley crushed Pastor Larry A. Lee, showing Council member Kelley’s popularity in the 5th Ward.
| Member, City Council SAN BERNARDINO Ward 7 |
| 20/20 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| WENDY J. MCCAMMACK | 1,305 | 57.41% |
| JIM MULVIHILL | 968 | 42.59% |
| Total | 2,273 | 100.00% |
They say that insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. No different results in this rematch.
Finally, there is some unfinished business. In the City Clerk election, there will be, as presumed, a run-off between the two top vote getters.
| City Clerk SAN BERNARDINO |
| 148/148 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| PEGGI HAZLETT | 2,325 | 20.16% |
| GEORGEANN ”GIGI” HANNA | 2,813 | 24.39% |
| AMELIA SANCHEZ-LOPEZ | 3,294 | 28.56% |
| WILLIAM A. VALLE | 1,031 | 8.94% |
| ESTHER JIMENEZ | 2,071 | 17.96% |
| Total | 11,534 | 100.00% |
Political newcomer Gigi Hanna did admirably, making the run-off. Amelia Sanchez Lopez (which despite the name on the ballot seems to now be the preferred spelling) rocketed to the top, leading Gigi Hanna by 481 votes. Conventional wisdom says that the Latino vote was split; however as I have said before, I don’t know if there is actual evidence of that. First, there will be turn-out issues, and more focus on the race. I think Amelia Sanchez Lopez has an advantage going into the run-off because of the support that she has received from other elected officials. Gigi Hanna has to focus on her message of being independent and the importance of being independent from the warring sides. I think Amelia Sanchez Lopez has learned tremendously about this process, and will be in good shape in the run-off.
On to the San Bernardino City Unified School District Board Election
| San Bernardino City Unif School Dist Gov Brd Mbr |
| 200/200 100.00% |
| Vote Count | Percent | |
| ANNA M. COX | 1,741 | 4.03% |
| WILLARD A. HUGHES | 508 | 1.17% |
| MARGARET B. HILL | 6,383 | 14.76% |
| MIKE GALLO | 4,459 | 10.31% |
| LYNDA K. SAVAGE | 5,316 | 12.29% |
| DAMON L. ALEXANDER | 3,121 | 7.22% |
| ELSA VALDEZ | 2,929 | 6.77% |
| JUAN M. LOPEZ | 3,398 | 7.86% |
| HENRY WILLIAM NICKEL | 1,531 | 3.54% |
| GIL NAVARRO | 2,267 | 5.24% |
| DAN DEANE | 2,972 | 6.87% |
| TERESA PARRA | 4,032 | 9.32% |
| SHARON ”BOBBIE” PERONG | 4,597 | 10.63% |
| Total | 43,254 | 100.00% |
I’ll be talking about this race some more later, but two incumbents were dumped, with one retained, and three newcomers: former administrator Margaret Hill, executive Mike Gallo, incumbent Lynda Savage, and former teacher Sharon “Bobbie” Perong winning. Incumbent Teresa Parra Craig came in fifth, just out of the money.
The information you obtain at this blog is not, nor is it intended to be, legal advice. No attorney-client relationship is established by reading or commenting on this blog. You should consult an attorney for advice regarding your individual situation.
Website: http://michaelreiterlaw.com
Published November 8, 2011 | By Michael Reiter, Attorney at Law.
Today, November 8, 2011, voters will be going to the polls or turning in (hopefully not mailing) their vote-by-mail ballots. And today, we will start to see the shape of City of San Bernardino politics for the next two years until the next Mayoral/Council election in 2013. Additionally, a majority of the San Bernardino City Unified School District will be elected today.
The information you obtain at this blog is not, nor is it intended to be, legal advice. No attorney-client relationship is established by reading or commenting on this blog. You should consult an attorney for advice regarding your individual situation.
Website: http://michaelreiterlaw.com
Published November 2, 2011 | Here is a mailer from San Bernardino Unified School District candidate Mike Gallo: Here is the front, here is the back.
The information you obtain at this blog is not, nor is it intended to be, legal advice. No attorney-client relationship is established by reading or commenting on this blog. You should consult an attorney for advice regarding your individual situation.
Website: http://michaelreiterlaw.com