Bob Dutton

    1. Massive buckets of money can win against an established local candidate.

    2. Never let yourself be photographed sleeping.

    3. In the top-two primary era, particularly with two Republicans running in a plurality Democratic district, make sure not to make too big a deal about your political beliefs.

     

    This mailer, sent by the California Republican Party shows what hath the top two primary wrought.

    In it, career Republican politician (Gary Miller) accuses career Republican politician (Bob Dutton) of trying to “keep his Gravy Train chugging.”  Now, of course, Gary Miller, moved to Rancho Cucamonga, home of Bob Dutton, because his “Gravy Train” was redistricted.

    After following City of San Bernardino politics during the 2011 primary, it is refreshing to see better graphics in the better funded California Congressional District 31 race.  There must be a repository, somewhere, of bad Jim Penman photographs trotted out every four years for elections. However, Gary Miller does not need a grainy, out of focus picture of Bob Dutton. No!  They just need Adobe Photoshop to make him the conductor of the “GRAVY TRAIN.”

    Even better was a paid slate mailer called “Election Digest, a project of the Coalition for Literacy.”  Gary Miller’s dollars bought this language in the slate mailer:

    There is no Democratic candidate for this office.  Miller has the experience and the clout to bring good paying jobs back to San Bernardino County.

    I have not seen any data on this race, but I would not be surprised if Gary Miller wins this race based only on the sheer volume of money being spent on the race.

     

     

    Undervoting is where a voter does not record a preference for a particular race, or in the case of a race with more than one vote,  someone votes for less candidates than open positions.

    Why would someone intentionally undervote?  One reason is as a protest vote.  For example, say a voter in California Congressional District 31 is a  Democratic voter, but with California’s top-two primary has the choice of  two Republicans: Gary Miller or Bob Dutton.  Thus, the voter has a choice:  Vote for the Republican that is closer to their own political views, or leave the contest blank.   The motives for intentional undervoting in this situation are as a protest against both candidates, since one would expect either to vote with other Congressional Republicans 99 percent of the time.

    Neither candidate is making too big of a deal that they are both Republicans in the general election.  Both their websites tone down their Republican views to make them more palatable to a district that has a plurality of Democratic voters.  However, Gary Miller’s platform, as shown below, adheres more to Republican orthodoxy than does Bob Dutton.

    Bob Dutton, on his website shares his platform:

    On the Issues

    Job Creation

    This country is facing what most economists consider to be the most serious and the most dangerous economic situation in our lifetime. Government must create policies that allow small and large businesses to put Californians to work and keep our economic engine moving.

    Click here for more information on job creation .

    Federal Deficit

    We must balance the budget in Washington—government consistently spends more than it has and the American people have made it clear they have no appetite for new taxes.

    Education

    The first and most important role of government in providing an education is to guarantee a safe environment for our students. We must also ensure that our schools are held accountable, are held to the highest standards possible, and that we are giving local districts local control.

    Health Care

    Government health care rationing would be a catastrophe for the quality of health care in the United States. I believe we can look to proposals that would create health care associations allowing people to pool together to explore healthcare options within their state or even across state lines, rather than imposing a government-run option that reads like a one-size-fits-all approach.

    Public Safety

    Congress must ensure that we create policies that are tough on crime and keep Americans safe. This means we develop no-nonsense policies to ensure that dangerous criminals are prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

    Israel

    Israel should receive our unwavering support. As the only true democracy in the Middle East, Israel has been a longtime dependable ally helping to protect America’s interests in the region. Throughout its 60 + year existence its advanced technology industries have allowed it to share with the United States many electronic and cyberspace systems that have contributed to our own security.

     

    Gary Miller has a similar statement on his website:

    Issues

    Taxes:  Since coming to Congress, I have been a tireless advocate of lower taxes and a believer that Americans deserve to keep more of their hard earned dollars. As as our economy continues to recover from a deep and prolonged recession, I believe that raising taxes will only hinder economic growth and create additional burdens for American families, who have seen their wages and home values fall, while the cost of energy and many consumer goods continue to climb. For small businesses – which produce a net of two-thirds of all new jobs – higher taxes will further hinder their ability to expand and create jobs. To encourage economic growth, I will continue to use my voice and my vote in Congress to ease the tax burden on every day, hard-working Americans and job creators.
    Education: The future of our nation is dependent upon an educated workforce.  Ensuring that our children have access to a quality education remains a top priority of mine in Congress.  States and local school district must be given the flexibility they need to meet their needs without onerous regulations and mandates from government bureaucrats. At the same time, it is important that appropriate accountability measures be put in place to ensure that our nation’s schools and teachers are preparing students for the knowledge-based, technologically-rich world that awaits them.  I will continue to support state and local innovation in our educational system to give our children the best chance to succeed.
    Budget, Deficit, Debt:  Since President Obama took office, out-of-control federal spending has sent our national debt soaring in excess of $15 trillion, putting the future prosperity of our great nation at risk. This outrageous amount of debt also threatens to undermine our economy’s ability to recover and create jobs. In order to move forward and encourage economic growth, it is essential that we get our nation’s fiscal house in order. The government must put an end to reckless spending, prioritize federal dollars, and implement meaningful measures, including a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, to get our debt under control. I will continue to pursue these policies in order to address the serious fiscal issues facing our nation.
    Jobs & the Economy: Job creation is vital to our economic recovery. While there have been some recent modest signs of improvement, the sad fact is millions of Americans remain out of work, are struggling to find full-time work, or have dropped out of the labor force altogether. Job creation is essential to our economic recovery. To get more Americans back to work, it is vital that Congress take common-sense steps now to establish a better economic environment for job creators. This includes increasing our nation’s competitiveness in the global economy by opening up new markets for American-made goods, reforming the tax code, paying down our massive national debt, and removing unnecessary and burdensome regulations on job creators. I look forward to working in the House of Representatives this session to help our economy grow and create jobs by restoring the United States to its position as the world leader in innovation and the best place to do business.
    Second Amendment:  I am an adamant defender of the 2nd Amendment.  Congress must not improperly hamper the right of law-abiding citizens to bear arms. If we are to honor and uphold the Constitution, this right cannot be infringed.  While those who use a firearm to commit a crime must be punished, legislation to limit gun rights for those who obey the law will do nothing more but damage our liberties. I believe we can better improve public safety by enforcing current laws on the books to keep guns out of the hands of criminals. I will continue working in Congress to uphold our constitutional right to bear arms.
    Healthcare: I believe it is important that Congress help ensure that current and future generations of Americans have access to affordable, quality health care.  I opposed the President’s health care law, however, because I have serious concerns about its cost, tax increases, large cuts to Medicare, restrictions on patient choice, as well as constitutional concerns about its mandate for all Americans to purchase government-approved health insurance. Instead of costly government mandates, I believe we need free market reforms that will increase patient choice and rein in spiraling health care costs. These include allowing Americans to purchase health insurance across state lines, allow small businesses and the self-employed to pool their resources to purchase health insurance through Association Health Plans, improve health care delivery, and reform the current medical liability system, which forces doctors to either quit practicing medicine, or pay excessively high premiums which raises the cost of providing patient care. I will continue to pursue such common-sense solutions to improve health care quality and affordability.
    Energy & the Environment: Energy independence is vital to our nation’s future prosperity and security. I believe the American people deserve to have an “all of the above” plan that increases the supply of American-made energy in environmentally sound ways, increases alternative forms of energy, and encourages energy and conservation. Increasing access to American-made energy will create new job opportunities here at home, lessen our dependence on oil from unfriendly nations, and help reduce the burden of high gas prices on American families. The United States has long been the world’s leader in innovation and technology. I am confident that we will find solutions to meet the needs of our nation while upholding our commitment to our environment so that future generations of America will continue to enjoy our country’s pristine and unmatched natural beauty.
    Family Values:  In addition to addressing our country’s economic and national security concerns, I have fought in Congress to protect traditional family values and moral integrity. Specifically, I have supported legislation to protect the lives of unborn children and promote a culture of life in the United States, support traditional marriage, and defend the founding principles of our nation. I have also supported efforts to protect Americans’ religious freedom and the religious symbols and traditions which reflect our great country’s heritage of faith. Furthermore, I have long supported protecting the right of parents to make decisions regarding the upbringing of their children without unnecessary government intrusion.
    Transportation & Infrastructure: Essential to a prosperous economy is a functional, efficient, and safe transportation system. Nowhere is this more evident than in Southern California, where our roadways are a vital conduit for transporting billions of dollars worth of goods and services. Despite our need for an efficient and fluid transportation system, our region is facing a crisis in transportation characterized by dramatic growth in commuter and truck traffic, limited transportation funding, and high infrastructure improvement costs. As a senior member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, I have been a consistent advocate for transportation funding and relief for our region. As Congress considers major highway and infrastructure legislation during this session, I will continue to work on federal policies to address Southern California’s growing transportation and water infrastructure needs.
    Medicare & Social Security: As our nation’s budgetary difficulties are likely to continue for many years, a great deal of discussion has taken place in Congress about the future of Social Security and Medicare.  I believe we must protect these programs for the more than forty million current beneficiaries and for the millions of Americans who will one day rely upon these crucial programs. Any reforms to these Social Security and Medicare must reflect our commitment to those who have spent their entire lives paying into the system, but also ensure that younger workers may achieve financial security and health care in retirement. Because of the importance of these programs, I will closely analyze all alternatives for reform to ensure we keep our promises to today’s seniors, while ensuring the long-term viability of Social Security and Medicare for future beneficiaries. 
    Immigration: There is no doubt that America is an open and welcoming society. Our nation has benefited from the experiences and contributions of the millions of immigrants who have come to our shores seeking increased opportunities and a better life for them and their families. At the same time, we are also a nation of laws. The respect for the rule of law is a core American value that has made us the envy of the world. Unfortunately, our nation’s immigration laws continue to be violated and ignored, to the detriment of U.S. citizens, legal residents, and to those who wish to come to our country legally. Congress must continue efforts to strengthen enforcement along the southwest border, remove loopholes in current law that invites manipulation of our laws, and shut down the job magnet that encourages individuals to enter our country illegally.
    Size of Government: While federal spending and interference in the private sector has grown in recent years, our economy has continued to struggle to recover and create jobs. Big government spending and mandates continues to crowd out private investment, innovation and economic growth. I believe we need a smaller government that restores more autonomy to states and local governments, who know their citizens best. While there are areas in which the federal government must invest in – such as national defense and major transportation infrastructure – Congress has a duty to ensure that taxpayer dollars are spent effectively and wisely. I am confident that the federal government can eliminate such wasteful spending while preserving programs that keep our nation secure, maintain and restore our essential infrastructure, and ensure that those who truly need assistance are cared for. 
    Ontario Airport: The Ontario International Airport is a vital component of our community’s transportation infrastructure, serving San Bernardino and Riverside Counties and portions of north Orange County and east Los Angeles County. The airport serves over 5 million passengers a year, with 93,000 flights on an annual basis. In addition, this facility generates $5.4 billion in economic benefits to the Inland Empire and is directly attributable to over 7,000 jobs. With the increasing congestion at Los Angeles Airport (LAX) and with LAX having no possibility of expanding, it is vital that we maintain a strong and vibrant Ontario airport, which has faced many challenges in recent years. I believe that transferring control of the airport to the city of Ontario will improve service to local residents who utilize its services, relieve the strain that is being placed on other airports around Southern California, and bolster our region’s economy.
    Agriculture:  Agriculture plays a pivotal role in our nation’s economy. We in California enjoy so many fresh foods locally grown due to our wonderful weather and soils. Unfortunately, agriculture has been an overlooked profession that has dwindled in practice over the years. Those who continue to take part in farming are faced with many difficulties and obstacles. As a nation founded and sustained by farmers I believe we must ensure that federal farm policies are properly balanced to meet the needs of those who produce our food and help hard-working American families continue putting food on the table.

    The most surprising news out of the 31st Congressional District of California is that Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar did not make the General Election, leaving Gary Miller, a Republican from Diamond Bar in Los Angeles County, and Bob Dutton, a Republican from Rancho Cucamonga.

    First, I think Pete Aguilar did an excellent job on his first run for national office.  His staff was enthusiastic, and from my interactions with them, knew what they were doing.  I don’t think any actions or inaction by Mayor Aguilar or his staff and volunteers are to blame.

    1. Democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.   Too many Democrats were running in a plurality Democratic district.  Justin Kim appeared, anecdotally, to have strong grass-roots support, and I am sure his showing surprised some observers.  The Democrats were hampered by having too many candidates, and a lack of party organization and discipline, nationally, at the state level and locally.  Justin Kim effectively split the vote with Pete Aguilar.  Additonally, the votes received by any other Democrat could have put Pete Aguilar over the top.

    2. Strong(er) Republican turn-out, with less turn out overall.  Senator Dutton had excellent name recognition, having represented Redlands before.

    3. Even with a new district, the traditional electoral dominance of the West End over the East Valley.

    4. Money.  While Mayor Aguilar raised an impressive amount of money, it is no surprise that with the amount of money either stockpiled by Gary Miller, raised fresh by Gary Miller, and spent on behalf of Gary Miller by the realtors, that Gary Miller received the most votes.

    UPDATE (11/7/2012): Looking for the November 6, 2012 Election Results for San Bernardino County?: Click here: http://sbdpolitics.com/2012/11/07/san-bernardino-county-election-results-november-6-2012/

     

    Here are the unofficial results, as of 1:46 a.m. today, of the 2012 Primary for the County of San Bernardino.  I have omitted the propositions, U.S. Senate and the primary votes.
    “Winners” are in bold (most of the races are part of California’s top two primary, where the top two vote-getters go on to the general.  The same is true of the Supervisor primaries, except if someone wins a majority, they don’t hold a general election).  If the district is in more than one county, I didn’t show the winners.

    The short version:  Gregg Imus versus Paul Cook in CD8, Bob Dutton versus Gary Miller in CD31, Gloria Negrete McCloud versus Joe Baca (Senior) in CD35, Josie Gonzales wins as 5th District Supervisor, Neil Derry and James Ramos in the 3rd District General Election in November, and Robert Lovingood versus Rick Roelle in the 1st District General Election.
    Congress 8th (San Bernardino County only, district includes Inyo and Mono)
    836/836 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    JOSEPH D. NAPOLITANO    760    1.20%
    ANTHONY ADAMS    2,168    3.44%
    DENNIS L. ALBERTSEN    618    0.98%
    GREGG IMUS    9,381    14.87%
    ANGELA VALLES    3,843    6.09%
    PHIL LIBERATORE    9,064    14.37%
    BILL JENSEN    1,488    2.36%
    BRAD MITZELFELT    7,390    11.71%
    RYAN MCEACHRON    2,370    3.76%
    JACKIE CONAWAY    8,748    13.87%
    PAUL COOK    10,253    16.25%
    GEORGE T. CRAIG    1,040    1.65%
    JOHN PINKERTON    5,964    9.45%
    Total    63,087    100.00%

    Congress 27th (Mostly Los Angeles)
    21/21 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    BOB DURAN    1,622    30.54%
    JACK ORSWELL    1,860    35.02%
    JUDY CHU    1,829    34.44%
    Total    5,311    100.00%

    Congress 31st
    439/439 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    PETE AGUILAR    12,016    22.82%
    BOB DUTTON    13,088    24.86%
    RENEA WICKMAN    3,446    6.54%
    RITA RAMIREZ-DEAN    2,966    5.63%
    JUSTIN KIM    7,083    13.45%
    GARY G. MILLER    14,057    26.70%
    Total    52,656    100.00%

    Congress 35th
    239/239 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    ANTHONY W. VIEYRA    4,301    18.97%
    GLORIA NEGRETE MCLEOD    7,702    33.98%
    JOE BACA    10,666    47.05%
    Total    22,669    100.00%

    Congress 39th (Mostly Orange and Los Angeles)
    32/32 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    ED ROYCE    4,589    67.63%
    D’MARIE MULATTIERI    242    3.57%
    JAY CHEN    1,954    28.80%
    Total    6,785    100.00%

    State Senator District 21 (Mostly Los Angeles)
    165/165 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    STEVE KNIGHT    17,454    68.91%
    STAR MOFFATT    7,875    31.09%
    Total    25,329    100.00%

    State Senator District 23 (includes Riverside County)
    622/622 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    MELISSA RUTH O’DONNELL    21,135    36.33%
    BILL EMMERSON    37,043    63.67%
    Total    58,178    100.00%

    State Senator District 25 (Mostly Los Angeles County)
    42/42 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    GILBERT V. GONZALES    4,841    58.63%
    AMEENAH FULLER    702    8.50%
    CAROL LIU    2,714    32.87%
    Total    8,257    100.00%

    State Senator District 29 (includes  Los Angeles and Orange County)
    31/31 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    ROBERT ”BOB” HUFF    4,583    69.31%
    GREG DIAMOND    2,029    30.69%
    Total    6,612    100.00%

    State Assembly District 33
    548/548 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    TIM DONNELLY    21,081    51.65%
    WILLIAM E. ”BILL” JAHN    7,767    19.03%
    JOHN COFFEY    11,964    29.31%
    Total    40,812    100.00%

    State Assembly District 36 (Mostly Los Angeles County)
    10/10 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    RON SMITH    959    42.81%
    STEVE FOX    585    26.12%
    TOM LACKEY    696    31.07%
    Total    2,240    100.00%

    State Assembly District 40
    341/341 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    RUSS WARNER    16,066    42.11%
    MIKE MORRELL    22,083    57.89%
    Total    38,149    100.00%

    State Assembly District 41 (Mostly Los Angeles County)
    55/55 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    VICTORIA RUSNAK    1,635    14.21%
    CHRIS HOLDEN    1,521    13.22%
    MICHAEL A. CACCIOTTI    1,328    11.54%
    ED COLTON    3,224    28.02%
    DONNA LOWE    3,800    33.02%
    Total    11,508    100.00%

    State Assembly District 42 (Includes Riverside County)
    150/150 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    MARK ANTHONY OROZCO    4,710    36.08%
    BRIAN NESTANDE    8,343    63.92%
    Total    13,053    100.00%

    State Assembly District 47
    283/283 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    JOE BACA JR.    9,064    41.96%
    CHERYL R. BROWN    6,307    29.20%
    THELMA E. BEACH    1,406    6.51%
    JEANE ENSLEY    4,825    22.34%
    Total    21,602    100.00%

    State Assembly District 52 (includes Los Angeles County)
    149/149 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    PAUL VINCENT AVILA    2,207    14.35%
    RAY MOORS    1,090    7.09%
    KENNY COBLE    6,371    41.43%
    NORMA J. TORRES    5,711    37.14%
    Total    15,379    100.00%

    State Assembly District 55 (includes Los Angeles and Orange County)
    31/31 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    CURT HAGMAN    4,825    72.44%
    GREGG D. FRITCHLE    1,836    27.56%
    Total    6,661    100.00%

    County Supervisor – 1st District
    346/346 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    JERMAINE WRIGHT SR.    2,402    7.77%
    MICHAEL ORME    2,506    8.10%
    ROBERT A. LOVINGOOD    6,492    20.99%
    RICK ROELLE    6,092    19.69%
    BOB SMITH    4,479    14.48%
    BRET L. HENRY    4,620    14.94%
    RUSSELL E. ”RUSS” BLEWETT    4,342    14.04%
    Total    30,933    100.00%

    County Supervisor – 3rd District
    480/480 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    NEIL DERRY    13,926    32.84%
    JAMES C. RAMOS    19,898    46.92%
    JIM BAGLEY    8,586    20.25%
    Total    42,410    100.00%

    County Supervisor – 5th District
    248/248 100.00%
    Vote Count    Percent
    JOSIE GONZALES    11,375    62.84%
    JOHN TAACK    4,435    24.50%
    SILVIA J. MARROQUIN    2,291    12.66%
    Total    18,101    100.00%

    I don’t have much to add that hasn’t been said elsewhere.  This is the first test for the California top two primary in this area, and I am especially curious to see the results in the 8th Congressional district race to see if the alleged moderation effect touted by Abel Maldonado works or not.  I am, of course, curious to see the effect on the 31st Congressional District.  I want to see if spending in our unique media market had an impact on the top two nominated for the general election. I’ll go out on a limb here: The final two will come out of these four candidates: Pete Aguilar, Justin Kim, Bob Dutton or Gary Miller.

    As for San Bernardino proper, except for the two supervisorial races, not much is going on.  I have no strongly held opinions about those races.

    A recent picture of the California 31st Congressional District Open Primary signs:

    Dueling Bob Dutton and Gary Miller Signs in Redlands

    This is located at approximately 710 East Redlands Boulevard, roughly in front of the Albertsons in Redlands.  As we can see, the sign says “Re-Elect Gary Miller Congressman,” even though Jerry Lewis represents this area in Congress. Above the neon Gary Miller sign is a Bob Dutton for U.S. Congress sign.  Both are Republicans; Gary Miller says he is moving to Rancho Cucamonga if he is elected; Bob Dutton is a California State Senator, and he was a Rancho Cucamonga council member.

    The primary election for the new California 31st Congressional District (not to be confused with the current 31st Congressional District, which is in Los Angeles County)  is on June 5, 2012.  This is an open primary, meaning that two top preferences will move to the general election in November 2012.

    According to the San Bernardino Registrar of Voters, the open primary works like this:

    The Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act requires that all candidates for a voter-nominated office be listed on the same ballot. Previously known as partisan offices, voter-nominated offices are state legislative offices, U.S. congressional offices, and state constitutional offices.
    In this new open primary system, this means you can vote for any candidate, regardless of what party preference you indicated on your voter registration form. Only the two candidates receiving the most votes—regardless of party preference—move on to the general election regardless of vote totals. If a candidate receives a majority of the vote (50 percent +1), a general election still must be held. Even if there are only two candidates in the open primary, a general election is still required.
    Write-in candidates for voter-nominated offices can still run in the primary election. However, a write-in candidate can only move on to the general election if the candidate is one of the top two vote-getters in the primary election. Additionally, there is no independent nomination process for a general election.

    This system was created by the voters of the State of California in passing Proposition 14 on June 8, 2010.  The idea is that it will attract moderate candidates, because the candidates will no longer have to appeal to partisan voters in the primary.  At least in theory, we will find out what happens in the general election.
    Right now in the 31st Congressional District of California race, the following candidates are running in alphabetical order:
    Redlands Mayor Pete Aguilar, whose ballot designation is Business Owner/Councilmember, a Democrat.  I worked with Mayor Aguilar when I was Assistant City Attorney for Redlands. He was born in Fontana, lived in San Bernardino, went to Yucaipa High School and the University of Redlands, and now lives in Redlands, of course.

    Dr. Rita Ramierz-Dean, who is listed as “Retired Educator” on the ballot, a Democrat.

    California Senator Bob Dutton, who lists himself as an “Independent Small Businessmen,” a Republican, which I guess to the low-information voter sounds better than, say, California Senator.

    Justin Kim, who is listed as “Congressional Oversight Counsel,” a Democrat.  He lives in Loma Linda.

    Gary Miller, who is listed on the ballot as “Member of Congress,” no doubt for low-information voters, a Republican from Brea or Diamond Bar, depending on the account.  When you search “Gary Miller” Congress

    Renea Wickman, who is listed on the ballot as a Nonprofit Executive Director, lives in Redlands, and is a Democrat.

    The most recent data from the San Bernardino Registrar of Voters says that the new California 31st Congressional District has the following character: there are 291,087 voters. 38 percent, or 113,054 are permanent vote by mail voters.  It is a plurality Democratic district, with 118,960 registered Democrats (40.8 percent), 103,472 (35.5 percent) Republican voters, and 56,068 (19.3 percent) Decline To State (nonpartisan) voters.  The most voters after the big three (Democrats, Republicans and Decline To State) are American Independent at 9,065, 1,393 Libertarians, 1,064 Greens, 1,048 Peace and Freedomers, and 17 Americans Elect partisans.  That data is based on a 4/22/2012 run date.

    A variety of factors are in play here.  There should be light turn out for the Presidential primary as it is either over, or will be, for both parties by June 5, 2012.  Gary Miller is running as an incumbent, even though he isn’t from here, and doesn’t live here.  Bob Dutton must have some name recognition as a sitting elected official for this area, but as you can see both by the picture above and his website front page, he is neither running as a Republican, nor as a California Senator.  For the Democrats, Pete Aguilar has name recognition in Redlands, where he is the current Mayor.  As far as West End versus East Valley, it appears the district is about evenly divided between the two.  There are four Democrats running, and Pete Aguilar has raised the most money in the last reports.  I have seen some grass roots support for Justin Kim driving around Redlands (yard signs), but that anecdotal information is not of much value.  Justin Kim raised about half of what Pete Aguilar raised.  I see signs from someone running in the 8th District, and that doesn’t mean anything either.

    I won’t try to handicap the race, because there are too many variables.